Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Bryce Harper would have been good for the Yankees, but the timing is not right




Bryce Harper would be a good fit for the New York Yankees, but the timing is not right.

The Yankees need a left handed bat very similar to Harper's. The Yankees' lineup is full of right handed bats. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Gleybor Torres, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voigt are all talented right handed hitters. The injury to Did Gregorious makes the Yankee lineup less balanced because he is the team's best left handed hitter.

Once the Yankees traded for Stanton last year, it made it difficult for them to acquire Harper, who is seeking a 10 year deal for 300 or more million dollars. It is difficult for any team, including the Yankees, to simply add a contract like that.

The Yankees owe Stanton 240 million dollars over the next nine seasons. Eventually, the Yankees will need to re sign Judge and Luis Severino. If Sanchez has a bounce back year this year, then they may want to re sign him as well. If Andujar and Torres continue their current trajectory, they will need to be re signed when their rookie contract is over.

Additionally, the Yankees are still paying players a lot of money over the next few years. Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is owed 42.8 million dollars over the next two years. Pitcher Masahiro Tanaka is set to receive 45 million dollars for the next two seasons. Relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman is owed 51.6 million dollars over the next three years.

Furthermore, the Yankee signed Zack Britton for 3 years at 39 million dollars. Relief pitcher Adam Ottavino will receive 27 million over the next three seasons. Starting pitcher J.A. Happ was signed for two seasons and 34 million dollars. If he reaches certain incentives, Happ's contract continues for a third year and an additional 17 million dollars.

Finally, there are other good players available next year in free agency. Pitchers Chris Sale and Justin Verlander are available. Short stop Francisco Lindor is a free agent next off season. Two years from now outfielder Mike Trout is available.

Every off season there are good players available. Teams also have to consider re signing their own players. Over paying for available players hurts a team's chances of signing other players in the future. So, teams have to use some financial discipline and consider the context of the situation. Good teams do not make decisions in a vacuum. Good teams look at various factors.

Since 2001, the Yankees have spent 3.8 billion dollars on salaries for players. Additionally, since 2002, the Yankees have spent 319 million dollars in luxury tax payments. They have won one World Series during that time.

Harper is a good player, but a 10 year commitment to any player is a risk. Many believe that Harper will not sign a short term contract. Many believe that he will only sign a long term deal in the neighborhood of 10 years for more than 300 million dollars. Harper turned down an offer from the Washington Nationals for 10 years and 300 million dollars before free agency began. If he was willing to turn down that deal, that suggests that he is looking for more than 300 million dollars.

Teams are becoming more skeptical of 10 year contracts. Teams are reluctant to commit 10 years to any player because the player will struggle on the back end of the deal. The team will regret the contract towards the end of the deal. So, teams are offering shorter deals.

Teams also want to avoid paying the luxury tax. The tax costs money and moves a team down 10 spots in the first round the following draft. Additionally, teams that go over the luxury tax lose money to sign international players. The luxury tax is punitive enough that it deters teams from going over the threshold.

Harper will get a good contract, but he probably will not get it from the Yankees.

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