Saturday, November 3, 2018

Scoring in seven seconds - The fast paced game of the modern NBA




Mike Breen and Doris Burke recently discussed the offensive strategy in basketball of trying to score in 7 seconds or less. Breen mentioned that the analytics suggest that defenses are not set within those seven seconds so it becomes easier for an offense to score. Trying to score within 7 seconds is like trying to take advantage of a defense that may be off balance or slow to get back into position.

Trying to score in 7 seconds or less requires that a team be in peek condition. Trying to score quickly with each possession means that a team will be moving up the court faster than if they got into their half court offense. It requires that a team have intense focus and concentration. In addition, to being in good condition the players need to be able to shoot quickly and make quick decisions with the basketball.

A team cannot run this kind of offense unless it has the right players. An offensive strategy depends on the personnel that a team has. A team cannot run certain plays unless it has players who are well suited to that particular kind of offense. So, before a coach implements this approach, he has to make sure that he has the players who can make this approach successful.

As with any offensive approach, the players have to buy into the strategy. They have to have a good attitude and they have to be able to play together on the court and have the proper team chemistry. Collectively, the players have to have confidence in this kind of offense or style of play.

Playing this style of offense may harm a team defensively. For instance, a team may get tired and struggle to back defensively. However, a coach can make frequent substitutions to make sure that players are fresh and rested. A coach can have a good rotation of players who can substitute in and out of the game. This assures that the players on the court can maintain the fast paced nature of the offense. This also assures that the players can get back on defense.

Mike D'Antoni is largely credited with creating this style of play. First, he implemented this style of play with the Phoenix Suns. Then he tried it with the New York Knicks. Currently, the Houston Rockets implement the offense under D'Antoni's guidance.

Krossover.com says that there are 6 basic principles to this offense. First, there are good shots and better shots. In other words, look for the best shot that you can find quickly. Second, it takes only one second to pass the basketball to a player who is in a better position for a good shot. Third, look for an open shot. If the shot is open, then you should take it. Don't shoot contested shots. Fourth, the offensive system has similar plays, but each play is slightly different. In other words, there is a basic theme to the offense, but each play is a variation on that basic theme. Fifth, try to shoot the basketball before the offense gets set. This is the key to the offense. Try and catch the defense off balance. Try to score when the defense it as it's weakest point. Finally, the quicker you play, the less you will turn over the basketball. This offense requires fewer passes, so there should be fewer turnovers.

The offense is well thought out. As long as the players are in good shape and an run the offense effectively, then the offense makes sense.



Scott Davis, ofBusinessinsider.com, says that D'Antoni's style of play was behind the success that the Phoenix Suns experienced between 2004-2008. Davis says "D'Antoni found management that supported his vision. And the key to this vision was the acquisition of All-Star point guard Steve Nash, who gave D'Antoni the engine to his offense. D'Antoni moved Amare Stoudemire, an explosive power forward, to center. Around this dynamic pick-and roll duo, D'Antoni unleashed three sharpshooting, athletic wings, a rare structure at that time...The Suns went 62-20 during the 2004-05 season as D'Antoni won Coach of the Year and Nash won MVP. The "seven seconds or less" Suns - a term used to describe the pass of their offense- went 170-76 over the next three seasons, with Nash winning a second MVP in 2005-06." So, D'Antoni's success with the Suns proved that this offense worked. Nash was the right point guard and Stoudemire and Nash worked well with eachother. Additionally, the team's ability to make three point shots brought everything together for the Suns.

What the Suns started has continued with the Golden State Warriors. Steve Kerr was the general manager for part of D'Antoni's time in Phoenix. Now, Kerr coaches the Warriors. Davis says "The Kerr-led Warriors were like D'Antoni's Suns. Steve Curry was in the Steve Nash role, but was quicker and more deadly of a shooter. The Warriors pushed the pace and spread the floor with shooters, cutters, and defenders in Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Iguodala. And more importantly, they had playmaking and defensive big men in Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut, something D'Antoni never had much on in Phoenix." D'Antoni provided Kerr with a blueprint that he could implement in Golden State. D'Antoni showed Golden State and other organizations what could happen with this syle of offense.

When D'Antoni came to Houston to coach the Rockets, he brought his system with him. Davis said "In Houston GM Daryl Morey. D'Antoni found a kindred spirit. Morey's basketball philosophy is analytically driven- three pointers, layups, and free throws are basketball's most efficient shots. Throw out mid range jumpers, deep twos and post ups; there are better shots to be taken. The two systems align." So, D'Antoni and Morey have been able to combine their two philosophies. D'Antoni and Morey are on the same philosophical page. They are in agreement about what works on a basketball court. When the GM and coach of a team are in agreement, an organization has a better chance of building a good team and winning basketball games. This has happened in Houston. Last year the Rockets made it to the Western Conference championship series. Ironically, they lost to the Warriors- the eventual NBA champs.

The Rockets play a little differently than the Suns did. In Houston, the players are more free to play isolation basketball. Chris Paul and James Harden are free to take their defender one on one and try and score in isolation. This is a variation of D'Antoni's system which prizes the pick and roll and quick shooting.

Howard Beck, writing for bleacherreport.com, says that D'Antoni "embraces - or at least tolerates - this version of iso-ball because it starts with his beloved pick and roll set, as opposed to the old school approach, where teams simply dumped the ball to a stationary player, cleared out and let him grind away. Just as important: Both Harden and Paul are elite, willing passers who can turn those isolation moments into playmaking opportunities." So, D'Antoni has been willing to adjust his system to fit the style of the players on his team. His coaching style is flexible enough to make changes and adjustments.

Since the Suns' 2004-05 season the NBA has changed a lot. The Suns may have begun a renaissance in the NBA, but other teams have continued that renaissance. The NBA has changed perhaps permanently. Now, most teams try and score quickly either through three point shots or drives to the basket. Kevin Arnovitz and Kevin Pelton, writing for ESPN.com, say "In the intervening seasons, a league that toiled at a snail's pace for the better part of a decade from the mid - 90's onward has systematically adopted a frenzied, rapid fire style of basketball. That uptick in pace has coincided with crowd-pleasing barrages of 3-pointers and attacks that exist as much in transition or "early offense" as they do in plodding half court sets." So, the fast paced offense of the Suns' in the 2004-05 season has become a staple of today's NBA. Offenses today are more fast paced than they were before the 2004 season.

Arnovitz and Pelton point out that that in the early 2000's the NBA wanted to quicken the pace of the game. During the 1990's, the game had slowed down. Teams were not scoring a lot and the game had become less exciting to many people. Arnovitz and Pelton point out that "As recently as 1987-88, 100 possession games had been the NBA norm. But with the exception of a brief blip upward in the early '80's, the pace of play had inexorably been trending slower for decades. Consider that in 1961-62, when Wilt Chamberlain averaged 50.4 points per game and Oscar Robertson a triple double, the average NBA game featured 107.7 shots per game by each team. By 1997-98, the last season before Michael Jordan's second retirement, that had dropped to 79.7 shots per game- a 26 percent decline." So, teams took less shots in the 1990's than in previous decades. Offenses were slower and defenses were able to stop players from taking shots and scoring points. Some may not see this has a problem. Some observers may think that this was due to good defense. However, some league observers felt that this particular trend made the game boring and unwatchable.



Early in 2001, Suns owner Jerry Colangelo talked to commissioner David Stern about changing the pace of play in the NBA. Stern agreed with Colangelo and gave him the authority to implement some changes to the game that would facilitate more offense and encourage a quicker paced game.

Colangelo met with Pete Newell, Jerry West, Jack Ramsay, Rod Thorn and some coaches and general managers to discuss some changes to the game. Anovitz and Pelton said "The committee plowed through the proposals, which included requiring teams to bring the ball over half court in eight seconds rather than 10.(Colangelo had suggested seven seconds.)The NBA's illegal defense rule, which had existed in one form or another to prohibit zone defenses since the league's earliest days , was scrapped. Instead, the committee proposed the defensive three-second rule, preventing defenders from loitering in the paint but allowing them to defend an area rather than an opponent elsewhere on the court." These proposals were made by an ad hoc committee which had the authority to implement the changes. Normally, the coaches would be able to vote on the changes, but the committee was basically informing the coaches that these changes would be implemented during the upcoming season. The changes were designed to quicken the flow of the game and make the game more exciting to watch. These changes helped lead to the Phoenix Suns' efforts to score on each possession in under 7 seconds.

The emphasis on the three point shot also lead to the Suns' success. Arnovitz and Pelton said "D'Antoni's Suns also popularized a trend that would delight players as much as anything since the advent of the NBA charter flight: the 3 pointer in transition. Historically, a team on the break was looking for it's best opportunity for a shot attempt at the rim. In Phoenix, players were not only permitted to hoist the ball from behind the arc in transition but also actively encouraged to do so. After all, the payout on such a successful attempt is 150 percent of a successful layup, and shooters such as Nash, Raja Bell, James Jones, Leandro Barbosa and Tim Thomas could drill wide-open 3s with impressive accuracy." The Suns had at least 5 players who could make three point shots with regularity. They could make the open three point shot quickly before the defense had time to position itself. Shooting the three point shot in transition became a part of the Suns' offense. Today it is a part of most teams' offensive strategy.

The Golden State Warriors may be the team that has implemented this strategy the best. Anovitz and Pelton say "During the 2017-18 season, the Warriors attempted 654 three pointers in the first seven seconds after a change of possession, according to Second Spectrum tracking - more 3s than any of Riley's Lakers championship teams attempted total. The Warriors made 43 percent of those attempts, equivalent to hitting almost 65 percent of 2-pointers." The Warriors' ability to hit a high percentage of three point shots in transition has helped them become so successful in recent years. This gives their offense an added dimension that opponents find difficult to stop or contain. It has helped the Warriors to win multiple championships.

The Warriors' success has lead other teams to follow suite. Other NBA teams want to emulate the success of the Warriors. Anovitz and Pelton said "In two decades' time, a shot that was once regarded as the ultimate act of selfishness has become the octane that fuels the offenses that glide into late spring. Following the Warriors' lead, the league as a whole is pulling the trigger on 3s more quickly. This season, nearly a quarter of all 3s were taken in the first seven seconds of the shot clock after a change of possession, easily the highest rate in the five seasons tracked by Second Spectrum." So, the three point shot has become more popular and more essential to team success.

Due to the rules changes it has become less effective to post up a center or a power forward on the block. In the past, when teams threw the ball to a power forward or center, the player would draw the double team, which meant another player was open. The power forward or the center would shoot or pass the ball to the open player. Arnovitz and Pelton said "Today, offenses still want to draw two defenders to the ball so they can pick up a 4-on-3 advantage, but rather than feed a big man such as Kareem Abdul-Jabaar, Hakeem Alajuwon or Patrick Ewing, they're utilizing pick and roll actions with guards such as Curry, James Harden or Chris Paul. It's a far easier way to leverage defenses in 2018, to say nothing of the ability of elite point guards to drain a step-back 3-pointer. Even the best post players of past eras didn't have that at their disposal, nor were there 39 percent 3-point shooters along the perimeter primed for a kickout pass. As post ups have declined, the game has sped up." So, teams are trying to score differently today. They are trying a different offensive approach. There is less of a focus on the center or the power forward and more of an emphasis on the guards. Teams are trying to score quicker and more efficiently.

The NBA has evolved and changed over the years. The goal of the game is still to get a ball into a basket. However, while the goal has not changed, the means to accomplishing the goal has changed. Teams are trying to score quicker now than in the past. Offensive strategies have evolved and the pace of the game has picked up.

Basketball has always been an entertaining game. It has always involved athleticism and talent. It will be interesting to see if more changes will come about over time. Will the game slow down? Will the post up come back into vogue? Will the current style of play remain for a while?
Finally, are these changes necessarily good for the game? Did the game need to change as much as it has? Was the game less entertaining when it was slower paced?

These are all questions that will be asked by basketball observers in the future. However, one thing remains certain: Basketball will always be a good and entertaining game.



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