Where will the top free agents land? What are the possibilities? The offseason in baseball is always interesting. Every year there are top free agents who will consider offers from different teams. This year is no different. According to MLB.com and other observers, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbin, Michael Brantley and Craig Kimbrel are the top free agents in baseball. It will be interesting to see which teams they will sign with.
1. Manny Machado - Short Stop/Third baseman. Machado may be the most talented free agent available. He is good hitting infielder who is 26 years of age. He did not play as well as the Dodgers had hoped he would after they acquired him. During the post season, Machado told reporters that he does not hustle. This will probably impact how teams feel about him. One executive, when talking to Bill Madden, of the New York Daily News, said that if Machado talks this way before he signs a big contract, he will probably have a worse attitude after he signs his new contract. Do teams want to sign someone like that? How would that impact team chemistry? These are questions that general managers will have to consider. Machado is arguably the most talented free agent, but teams may be concerned with his attitude.
Grant Brisbee, of sbnation.com, thinks teams should seriously think of signing Machado. Brisbee says "How many players have hit 175 homeruns before their age 26 season? Just 17, including Hank Aaron, with whome Machado is tied. How many players have accumulated 30 wins above replacement before their age 26 season? That would be 32, with Lou Gehrig, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, and Joe DiMaggio just sneaking on the bottom of the list, behind Machado." So, Brisbee thinks, based on Machado's accomplishments, that a team should give him a chance. Brisbee sees Machado as a very talented player who can make a difference for whatever team he signs with.
Brisbee says "The Phillies just might be interested in spending a chunk of their available money on a young superstar. It was probably the plan to attack this offseason before 2018 even started, and their relative success likely emboldened them. They are near the bottom of the league in attendance, and while I'm not sure if Machado sells tickets on his own , he certainly helps teams win. Winning sells tickets." Brisbee contends that the Phillies have the money and want to build on last season's success. Additionally, Machado would probably help at the box office.
However, Brisbee predicts that the Chicago Cubs will trade Kris Bryant and sign Machado to a 10 year deal worth 330 million dollars. However, this would probably only happen if Bryant is traded. The Cubs may be more interested in signing Machado than in offering Bryant an extension.
According to usatoday.com, sports writers have various opinions of where Machado could wind up. Bob Nightengale thinks Machado will sign with the Yankees because "Machado badly wants to play in New York, and the Yankees need him." Gabe Lacques thinks that he will sign with the Phillies because they have the money to sign him. Ted Berg, like Nightengale, thinks he will sign with the Yankees because of Didi Gregorious' Tommy John surgery, Brian Cashman's ability to get the Yankees below the luxury tax threshold and Berg's opinion that Machado is a better fit for the Yankees than Bryce Harper. Steve Gardner, like Lacques, thinks he will sign with the Phillies because of the money that they have available. Jesse Yomtov thinks the New York Mets will sign him because the Mets have been frugal so they will have money to spend this off season. Finally, Scott Boeck also thinks that Machado will sign with the Yankees because of Gregorious' Tommy John surgery.
Yankees' general manager, Brian Cashman has said that he and the team's representatives will sit down with Machado. Clearly, the Yankees are interested in Machado. However, they are concerned about Machado's lack of hustle and his reputation as a dirty player. Yankees' owner Hal Steinbrenner has said that the Yankees have a strong enough clubhouse to manage a player with a questionable attitude. This is possible, however, Michael Kay and others have emphasized that the Yankees have young players who may be impressionable and could be lead astray by Machado's questionable attitude. Certainly any team, including the Yankees, have to be comfortable with a player before they can offer a long term lucrative contract of close to 300 million dollars.
2. Bryce Harper - Outfielder. Harper rejected a 10 year deal for 300 million dollars from his current team- the Washington Nationals. Harper's agent, Scott Boras, has compiled a 100 page portfolio and a video presentation on Harper. Boras does this for all of his top clients. Boras has argued that Harper should get a 10 year deal for 400 million dollars. Boras believes that Harper is worth that money because he is hitting free agency at age 26, so he could have 10 prime years for his new club. Boras also points out that Harper would have financial value for a team that could make money off of his jerseys, tee shirts and other memorabilia associated with him. Boras bypasses general managers and goes right to the owners for clients like Harper because teams are making such a big baseball and financial investment in someone like Harper.
Supposedly, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees have a chance at signing Harper. Some have mentioned that the Chicago White Sox may have an outside chance as well. The White Sox have money to spend on Harper and could be involved in the Harper sweepstakes. Some have also mentioned the Houston Astros as a possibility. The Astros tried to trade for Harper last year before the Nationals' owner nixed the deal. If Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton sign with other teams, the Astros would have additional revenue to make a play for Harper.
Harper always thought highly of Mickey Mantle and wanted to play for the Yankees. However, New York's acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton last year makes it less likely that New York would sign Harper. The Yankees are also deep at the outfield position. Additionally, the Yankees need pitching, and are more likely to focus on signing two or three pitchers. The Yankees may consider signing Harper if they trade Stanton to the Dodgers- the team that was Stanton's first choice to be traded to when he was with the Miami Marlins. The Yankees were his second choice, however, he helped New York get to the playoffs and was especially important to them when Aaron Judge was injured.
The Yankees may also consider signing Harper if he wanted to play first base. When the Nationals were at Yankee Stadium, Harper was seen taking grounders at first base. No doubt this was a message to the Yankees that he was willing to switch positions from the outfield to first base. Harper switched from catcher to the outfield after he was drafted out of high school by the Nationals. So, Harper knows how to switch positions. He can adapt his game. Nevertheless, the Yankees still seem like a long shot because of their need for pitching.
Nightengale thinks that Harper will stay in Washington because "He loves it there, and they love him." Lacques thinks that Harper will sign with the Dodgers because "They need a franchise player." Berg thinks he will sign with the Astros because Harper "would give them an historically good lineup that'd make them an instant favorite for 2019."
Jon Taylor, of Sports Illustrated, says that the Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers and the Nationals are the favorite to sign Harper. Taylor says "We saw what happened when everything went right for the Cubs in 2016; we've also seen what happened when you throw a wrench in the machine. Few if any teams can match Chicago's ceiling, but even super teams can stumble. Harper would help create distance between from surging Milwaukee and give them another stud under -30 player to extend their window of title contention." So, Taylor thinks that Harper may put the Cubs over the top and make it difficult for the Brewers to catch them. Milwaukee's success last season shows that they are a team to be reckoned with. So, the Cubs need to continue to improve if they are going to stave off the pesky Brewers.
Regarding the Dodgers, Taylor says "Los Angeles almost had Harper in August in a trade that would've sent him to Hollywood and Yasiel Puig to Washington. Now, though, the Dodgers can just play Harper and Puig together." Taylor also suggests that signing Harper makes sense for Los Angeles because the Dodgers have gotten close two years in a row.
Taylor also thinks the Phillies should strongly consider signing Harper. Taylor says "Harper makes so much sense for the Phillies. He provides a steady middle of the order presence in an inconsistent lineup. He puts an end to the Rys Hoskins Experiment in the outfield. He's insurance against Odubel Herrera's inconsistency and the growing pains of Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams. He'd help them contend now and later as the centerpiece of a young , bright roster." So, Taylor suggests that Harper would help them rebuild now and become contenders in the future. Harper would make them better immediately and help them build for the future.
Finally, there are the Washington Nationals. Taylor says "The Nationals may already be out of the running, having made a 10-year, $300 million offer to Harper that he and Boras summarily rejected. Whether or not he's still open to returning to D.C. despite that being Washington's first (and perhaps only) overture is unknown. But I have to imagine that the Nats want him back. He's the face of the franchise, and it's clear that the connection between player and city and fans is deep and vibrant." After all the excitement of Harper's free agent, he may decide to stay in Washington. Maybe he will decide to spend all or most of his career in the nation's capital.
3. Patrick Corbin- Starting pitcher. Corbin is the best free agent starting pitcher available. Corbin, a left hander, is 29 years of age. Last year, with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Corbin went 11-7 with an ERA of 3.15. Corbin struck out 246 batters and started 33 games for the Diamondbacks last season. According to riveraveblues.com, "Corbin is a four pitch pitcher, working with a low-90's four-seamer, a low 90's sinker, a low to mid 80's change-up, and a low-80s slider." So, Corbin has a variety of pitchers that should help him to remain a successful pitcher. He can change speeds and he can keep hitters off balance.
The Yankees have been linked to Corbin because he has said that he would like to play for them. Corbin grew up in upstate New York as a Yankee fan. Also, he is left handed, which should make him a good fit in Yankee stadium. The Yankees have the money to make a run at Corbin. They have a need for starting pitching and the fit seems real. Corbin should be the Yankees' number one priority this off season. The Yankees need to add a top notch pitcher to be able to compete with Houston and Boston. Corbin makes sense for the Yankees. Corbin has to decide if he is comfortable pitching in New York for the team that he grew up rooting for.
However, other teams will be interested in Corbin. George Stockburger, of thatballsoutofhere.com, says that the Philadelphia Phillies would also be a good fit for Corbin. Stockburger says "Corbin allowed 15 home runs last year, nine of which were at Chase Field in Arizona. The dimensions for Chase Field and Citizens Bank Park are very similar in terms of distance to the walls. The right field wall in Philadelphia is five feet closer to home than the one in Arizona, and the center field wall in Arizona is a couple of feet deeper than the one in Citizens Bank Park. Nearly half of the home runs given up by Corbin this year went to left field. While the wall in Philadelphia is a foot closer than the one in Arizona, it's three feet taller, which could help with line drive home runs." So, Stockburger thinks Corbin would be good for Philadelphia because of the dimensions of Citizens Bank Park. Corbin may consider this when he evaluates his options.
Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman of MLB. com discussed Corbin's options. They say that he could consider signing with the Anaheim Angels, the team that originally drafted him. He never played one game for Anaheim. He was traded to Arizona in 2010. Mintz and Shusterman said the Angels are in need of rotation assistance and Corbin could be an option. Mintz and Shusterman say that the Milwaukee Brewers could also be an option because they invested heavily last off season in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. So, perhaps they will continue to improve their team with a big free agent signing this off season. According to Mintz and Shusterman, the Nationals are a possibility to land Corbin if it does not retain Harper, and the Astros could sign Corbin if they lose Dallas Keuchel or Charlie Morton to other clubs.
However, most observers believe that Corbin is headed to the Bronx to play for the Yankees.
Mark Feinsand, of mlb.com, makes a case for Patrick Corbin. Feinsand says "Corbin's big year came at the perfect time, as he's now considered by many to be the top free agent starting pitcher this offseason. He won't turn 30 until next July, and as the top lefty on the market (ahead of Dallas Keuchel and J.A. Happ), he will surely be in demand. Corbin's hits, walks and home runs per nine innings have all gone down in each of the past two seasons, an encouraging sign for his future." So, according to Feinsand, Corbin should be a good signing for a team. He should pitch well in the future for his new team
4. Michael Brantley - outfielder. Brantley is the third best offensive player available this offseason. Brantley hit .309 with 17 home runs and 76 runs batted in. Brantley hits and throws left handed. He is 31 years of age. The Cleveland Indians are the only team he has ever played for.
Mike Axisa, of cbssports.com, reports that Brantley is one of the Atlanta Braves' top priorities. Axisa says that Atlanta could sign Brantley to play left field and move Ron Acuna to right field. Axisa says that Brantley is "regarded as a good defender and a quality veteran presence in the clubhouse." Axisa says that Brantley would probably bat second in the Braves' lineup if they signed him.
According to John Town, the Braves, White Sox and Phillies have already offered deals to Brantley. It will be interesting to see if he signs with one of those teams or another team. According to Towns, Brantley is projected to get a three year deal worth 45 million dollars during this offseason.
Terry Pluto, of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, says that Brantley will not return to Cleveland. Additionally, Mark Polishuk, of mlbtraderumors.com, says that "A reunion between the two sides seems unlikely, as Brantley's strong 2018 season has put him in line for a lucrative free agent contract." Pluto and Polishuk both believe that the Indians either do not have the money or are not willing to commit the money to sign Brantley.
Vinnie Duber, of nbcsports.com, says the White Sox could consider signing Brantley. Duber says "The main concern with Brantley is his health. He played in just 101 games over the 2016 and 2017 seasons. But he played in 143 games in 2018, a positive sign." The White Sox may sign him if they think he can continue to stay healthy and avoid injury.
Duber also says The White Sox don't need an outfielder like Brantley, necessarily. They're not expected to contend for a championship in 2019, and the outfield is perhaps the deepest area in their minor league system...But the White Sox current major league outfield leaves a lot to be desired, with subpar offensive seasons from Adam Engel, Nicky Delmonico and Avisail Garcia in 2018 and Daniel Palka seemingly best suited for a DH role. Brantley would be an obvious upgrade from an offensive standpoint." So, while Duber concedes that the White Sox are rebuilding, he still thinks it is possible that Chicago could sign Brantley.
Ryan Fagan, of sportingnews.com, is also concerned with Brantley's injury history. However, if he can stay healthy, Fagan thinks he could be a good signing. Fagan also says "It's worth noting, too, that Brantley is the kind of future-coach-veteran who makes a positive impact in the clubhouse even when he's on the DL." So, Brantley's positive attitude and leadership could sway teams to sign him.
5. Craig Kimbrel- relief pitcher. Last year, Kimbrel went 5-1 with 42 saves and a 2.74 ERA. He helped the Boston Red Sox win the World Series. He will be in demand as a closer. He has been a reliable closer who has accumulated 333 career saves and an ERA career ERA of 1.91. His career "Wins Above Replacement" is 20.2. He has been steady and consistent, and figures to be reliable for two or three years more, perhaps longer.
Mintz and Shusterman point out that Kimbrel's career ERA (1.91) is the lowest among relievers in baseball history. The second lowest ERA for relievers is Kelly Jansen's 2.20. So, Kimbrel is head and shoulders above any reliever in history. This certainly bodes well for Kimbrel as he tries to secure a free agent contract.
Mintz and Shusterman say that the New York Mets may be interested. Mintz and Shusterman say "Mets relievers posted an ERA of 4.96 this past season, which ranked 28th in MLB. Kimbrel alone could boost the Mets 'pen all the way up to average, if not better." Mintz and Shusterman say the St.Louis Cardinals could also be interested. Mintz and Shusterman point out that "It's now been three unfathomable seasons without postseason baseball for St.Louis, so the Cardinals may be itching to get back in the October mix with a signing like Kimbrel." Mintz and Shusterman also say that the Anaheim Angles could be interested in Kimbrel because "Ever since the days of Troy Percival and K-Rod, the Angels have struggled to find a shutdown closer of Kimbrel's caliber and consistency." Finally, Mintz and Shusterman suggest that the Phillies may also sign Kimbrel because Seranthony Dominguez was talented, but inconsistent as a closer last season. So, perhaps the Phillies will sign the more consistent Kimbrel.
However, Mintz and Shusterman believe that Kimbrel will ultimately sign with the Braves. Mintz and Shusterman point out that Kimbrel started his potentially hall of fame career with Atlanta and may want to go back to Atlanta. Mintz and Shusterman point out that Kimbrel lead the National League is saves each of his four seasons with the Braves.
The Red Sox offered Kimbrel a one year qualifying offer, which he did not accept. If Kimbrel signs with another team, then the Red Sox will receive a compensatory draft pick.
Matt Collins, of overthemonster.com., says "Kimbrel is an all time great at his position who is still in his prime, and the market has traditionally paid those guys. Last year, Wade Davis was the highest paid reliever and he got a three year deal worth $52 million." Collins seems to believe that Kimbrel will get paid more than Davis did.
Teams are always looking for closers, so Kimbrel should receive much interest from various teams. He will have his choice of teams to sign with.
It will be interesting to see where these 5 players will end up. They will have a busy off season meeting with various teams and mulling different options and offers.
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