Previewing Super Bowl 53

The New England Patriots will play the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53. Both teams won their conference championship games in overtime on the road.

The Patriots are playing in their 9th Super Bowl in 17 years. Ironically, 17 years to the day, the Patriots' dynasty began with a Super Bowl victory over the St. Louis Rams, who have not been in the Super Bowl since. Could the Patriots' dynasty reach full circle with another victory over the Rams? Or will the Rams,lead by a young, upstart quarterback who mirrors Brady 17 years ago, win their second Super Bowl in franchise history? Will the torch be passed from Tom Brady to Jerard Goff? Or will the Patriots win their 6th Super bowl in 9 tries?

Both teams have prolific offenses. The Rams lead the NFL in scoring with 565 points. The Patriots were 4th in scoring with 436 points.

The Patriots have the better defense. New England surrendered a 4th lowest 325 points. In contrast, the Rams surrendered 384 points, which ranks them 20th in the league. The Rams' defense will be challenged to stop the Patriots' offense.

Both teams played the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions. Both teams beat the Vikings and the Packers. The Rams lost to the Bears, while the Patriots beat the Bears. The Rams beat the Lions and the Patriots lost to the Lions.

The Rams finished 13-3 as winners of the NFC West. The Patriots finished 11-5 as the won the AFC East.

Patriots' head coach Bill Belichick is one of the greatest coaches of all time. Belichick, who was a successful defensive coordinator before becoming a successful head coach, gets the most out of the Patriots every season. He motivates the team well and helps individual players to buy into a "team first" concept. With the Patriots, the team always comes first. Individual pursuits are sublimated in order to fit into the team concept. Though the Patriots may not be the most talented team in the NFL, they are always the most united and grounded group of players in the league. They dedicate themselves to the "Patriot way", which represents a commitment to winning as a team.

Belichick is good at exploiting the weakness of the opposition. He is also good at taking away what the opposition does well. Finally, he changes the Patriots' approach from week to week based on who the next week's opponent is. It is difficult for teams to prepare for the Patriots because they do not know what the Patriots will do from week to week. Belichick always surprises the opposition. He always keeps the opposition on it's toes.

Rams' head coach Sean Mc Vay is a young coach who developed a reputation as offensive innovator. In today's game, teams are focused on hiring the next great offensive coach. McVay's success has made other teams think that they could have similar success if they find the next good offensive coach. Teams are looking to promote the next good offensive coordinator to a head coaching position. McVay's success has influenced hiring trends around the league.

McVay was assistant wide receivers coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He also served as the Washington Redskins' assistant tight ends coach, tight ends coach and offensive coordinator before he was hired by the Rams. McVay received a head coaching job relatively quickly. As head coach, he has a regular season record of 24-8. He is 2-1 in the post season. He has guided a team to the Super Bowl in only his second full year as a head coach.

Since McVay is considered an offensive coach, many people focus on the Rams' offense. Many think the Rams' chances of winning the Super Bowl depends on how the offensive plays. The Rams' offensive has different strengths.

Andy Benoit, of Sports Illustrated, said that the Rams employ condensed formations on offense. Benoit points out that the Rams line up relatively close to the offensive tackles. Benoit says "This has several benefits. One is that it puts receivers close to one another, where their routes easily crisscross and intertwine, creating traffic for man-to-man defenders and poor leverage for zone defenders. Another: A receiver aligned tightly inside, uninhibited by the sideline, always has a two way go. And crossing patterns, which are huge for L.A., are deeper since there's less ground to cover horizontally. But perhaps more importantly, a tightly lined receiver is better positioned to block on running plays." So, these condensed formations give the Rams several advantages. They pose challenges for the Patriots' defense. However, coach Bill Belichick, will be prepared with a plan to stop the Rams.

Benoit suggests that Belichick will try and "disrupt that spacing and timing." Benoit says the Patriots' edge defenders may try and jam the Rams' receivers. Benoit says "Those jams could wreck L.A's aerial timing and also congest the edges against the run. Yes, this would sacrifice New England's pass rush, which would be mostly neutralized by L.A's play-action designs anyway." It will be interesting to see if the Patriots try this approach. If they do employ this strategy, it will be interesting to see if it works.

New England will also be challenged by the Rams' unpredictability on offense. Mike Reiss, of espn.com, points out that "Arguably, the greatest strength of the Patriots' defense is the ability to take away what an opponent does best. But what the Rams do best seems to change on a week-to-week basis, which adds to the Patriots' already-formidable challenge." The Rams' ability to change and modify their offense, will make things difficult for New England. They may have to adjust to whatever surprise the Rams throw at the Patriots.



The Rams have a lot of talent on offense. Goff was one of the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He finished with 4,688 yards, which was the 4th most in the NFL this season. He threw 32 touchdown passes, which was tied for 6th best in the league. Goff threw 12 interceptions, which was in the middle of the pack in the NFL this season. He completed 64.9% of his passes, which is the 20th best percentage in the league.

Robert Woods and Brandon Crooks are the Rams' best two wide receivers. Woods caught 86 passes for 1.219 yards and 6 touchdowns. Cooks caught 80 receptions for 1,204 yards and 5 touchdowns. Remarkably, Woods and Cooks have almost identical numbers. Since both are equal parts of the Rams' offense, the Patriots will struggle to contain both. Indeed, they may struggle to contain one of the two receivers. Both give Goff excellent options in the passing game.

Todd Gurley was third this season in rushing yards. Gurley finished with 1,251 yards and a league best 17 rushing touchdowns. Gurley also caught 59 passes for 580 yards and 4 touchdowns. Gurley's rushing and receiving ability, arguably made him the best player in the NFL this season. The Patriots need to contain his rushing and receiving, which will be difficult to do.

Gurley had his only bad game against Chicago, so New England may want to look to see what the Bears defense did to contain Gurley. New England may try to implement that strategy if they think that they can.

Signing running back C.J. Anderson during the season has also helped the Rams. Bill Barnwell, of espn.com., says that after the Rams signed Anderson "the Rams made a point of recommitting to the run., as they ran the ball 83 times for 424 yards and four touchdowns in a pair of victories to lock up the No.2 seed and a first round bye" during the month of December. This rededication to the run made the Rams even more formidable. This meant that the Rams now had two good running backs - Gurley and Anderson. This strong running game complemented the excellent passing game that the Rams had with Goff throwing the ball to Crooks and Woods. A strong offensive team was now even stronger.

Barnwell also points out that during the regular season the Rams ran the "11 personnel" more often than any other formation. The "11 personnel" formation has one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers. They ran this formation more than any other team in the NFL. However, Barnwell points out that in the NFC Championship game against the Saints, the Rams were more successful running a "12 personnel" formation which involves on running back and two tight ends. Since they were more successful running the "12 personnel" formation in the NFC championship game, will they employ that formation often in the Super Bowl? Or will they simply stick with the "11 personnel" that they ran the majority of time in the regular season. It will be interesting to see. Either way, the Patriots' defense will have to prepare for both formations.

The Patriots' offense presents a formidable challenge for the Rams as well. Michael Salfino, of fivethirtyeight.com. points out that the Patriots have ran the football very well during the post season. Salfino says "Over the past two wins, the Patriots have become a power running, ball-control passing team that has their offense flow through the backs. And even more shockingly, they often indicate whether they are going to run or pass based on who they have on the field. They are winning less with deception, instead simply daring the defense to stop them." So, while many associate the Patriots' offense with Tom Brady, a future hall of fame quarterback, the Patriots have been very successful running the football this season and especially during the post season.



Brady, of course, is still the most valuable player for the Patriots. Once again, he had a stellar season. Brady threw 29 touchdown passes, but his 11 interceptions were the most since 2013. He threw for 4,355 yards and completed 65.8 percent of his passes. He is still at the top of his game. He still has a an uncanny ability to find open receivers such as Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski.

The Patriots' running back James White has been a duel threat this season. He was second on the team in rushing with 425 yards and first in the team in receptions with 87. White had 751 receiving yards out of the backfield and had 7 touchdown receptions and 5 rushing touchdowns. Brady will look for White on screen passes, short passes and in other opportunities. The Rams have to be aware of where he is. It will be interesting to see who the Rams assign to White. Will they assign a safety or a linebacker? Will a line backer be fast enough to cover White? Regardless, the Rams will have to concentrate on White in order to prevent him from making big plays.

Sony Michel was the Patriots' leading rusher with 931 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. Michel is not the threat out of the back field that White is. However, Michel can run well when given the opportunity, and he can supplement the strong passing game of the Patriots.

Julian Edelman had his usual solid season. Edelman caught 74 passes for 850 yards and 6 touchdowns. He lead the Patriots with 11.5 yards per reception. Edelman is Brady's favorite receiver and he epitomizes the Patriots' team first approach. His blue collar approach to the game represents the Patriots well.

Additionally, tight end Rob Gronkowski had 47 receptions for 682 yards. Gronkowski continues to be a top pass catching tight end. He gives Brady another option in the passing game.

So, while the Patriots have run well this post season, that does not mean they will plan a power fun game for the Super Bowl. They will probably plan a more balanced approach that includes passing and running. They will do whatever they can to keep the Rams' defense off balance. Belichick will search for the weakness of the Rams' defense and try to exploit it. Whether he can take advantage of the Rams' defensive weakness or not remains to be seen.



The Rams' defense is playing some of it's best football during the post season. Statistically, they did not have a great year. However, they are playing well now. Against the Dallas Cowboys, in the divisional round, the Rams held the NFL's leading rusher, Ezekiel Elliot to 47 yards on 20 carries. They held Cowboys' quarterback Dak Prescott to 266 yards and one touchdown pass.

Against the New Orleans Saints in the NFC championship game, the Rams harassed quarterback Drew Brees, the most accurate quarterback in NFL history, into throwing 16 incomplete passes including an interception. The Rams held Brees to 249 yards passing. The shut out the Saints in the second quarter and in the over time period. The Rams' defense limited the Saints' offense to only 48 rushing yards.

James Jones, of NFL.com, says that the Rams' ability to put pressure on the quarterback may cause problems for Brady. Jones says "Tom Brady has been far worse when pressured from the interior than from the edge in 2018, which plays right into the Rams' defensive strengths. Rams DTs Aaron Donald, the likely Defensive Player of the Year and Ndamukong Suh get after the quarterback more than any other interior duo, so I expect Brady to be uncomfortable for most of the game." The presence of two excellent defensive lineman will be difficult for the Patriots' offensive like to contain. They will need to be mindful of both players and will have to figure out what strategies have worked this season. Brady may have to work on getting rid of the football even quicker than usual in order to avoid the pressure from Suh and Donald.



James also points out that "Aqib Talib makes the Rams' secondary so much better. The Rams allowed 12.5 fewer points per gam this season when Talib, who had an ankle injury earlier in the season, is on the field. The defense has also allowed fewer total yards per game, third down percentage and passer rating against with Talib in the fold. He will be a huge factor in the game." Talib is a talented player who makes a positive difference in the Rams' secondary. Suh and Donald's ability to put pressure on Brady, combined with Talib's skills in coverage may help the Rams' defense contain the Patriots. Talib takes some of the pressure off of the other members of the Rams' secondary and allows them to be more effective.

Mike Reiss, of espn.com, points out that the Patriots' offensive line will have to try and contain Aaron Donald. Reiss says that Donald is the best defensive tackle and he could put pressure on Brady. Reiss says that he Patriots could devote a lot of time and attention to blocking Donald in an attempt to protect Brady. Of course, if the Patriots double team Donald, that could give another Rams' defensive tackle an opportunity to put pressure on Brady. Double teaming a star defensive tackle sometimes opens up opportunities for other players. That is a calculation that Patriots' coaches have to make. The Patriots' coaches will have to look at the tape and see what has worked against Donald this season. What kind of blocking schemes have neutralized Donald? What teams have had success keeping Donald away from the quarterback? Conversely what blocking schemes have not worked? These are questions that the Patriots will have to ask themselves.

The Rams' defense has only 33 sacks this season, which ranks 24th in the NFL. This bodes well for the Patriots who need to give Brady time behind the pocket to find the open receiver in order to win. The Rams also rank 23rd in rushing defense this season. So, even though the Rams defense has played well in the post season, they have not been strong during the regular season. If the Rams revert back to their mediocre defensive performance during the season, than that would bode well for the Patriots.

However, if the Rams can play like they did against Dallas and New Orleans in the playoffs, than the Rams may find a way to contain Brady and the Patriots' offense. Los Angeles needs to find a way to sustain their post season defensive performance, while New England needs to find a way to get Los Angeles to return to it's poor defensive performance during the regular season. This is where coaching, scouting and game preparation come in. It will be interesting to see how the Rams' defense will perform. The play of the Rams' defense could determine the outcome of the game.



While the Rams' defense is playing at a high level, they will face an offensive line that is also playing at an elite level. The Patriots' offensive line is having one of it's best seasons. Jared Dubin, of Cbssports.com, says that the Patriots' offensive line may have been the best in the NFL this season. Dubin points to the excellent job that offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia has done this season.

For much of Brady's career, including this season, the Patriots' offensive line has helped protect Brady from pressure. However, according to Durbin, 2018 may have been Scarnecchia's best coaching job. Durbin says "Brady was pressured on only 25.8% of his drop-backs this season," which was the third lowest rate in the NFL.

The Patriots' offensive line includes Trent Brown, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason and Marcus Cannon. All have played well this season.

Durbin also points out that the Patriots' offensive line has been even better in the post season. Durbin says "Brady has not even been sacked during New England's run to the Super Bowl. And he has been hit while throwing the ball only one time in 90 attempts." Clearly, Brady has been given time to find the open receiver. If New England's offensive line continues to play this well, than it will be hard for Los Angeles to win.

Phillips will have to find a way to pressure Brady. He may have to design creative blitz packages and stunts in order to fool and pressure Brady-who is too good to give time to. Brady often finds the open receiver when he has time. Brady's decision making skills, combined with his accuracy and arm strength make him too dangerous to leave back in the pocket. The Rams need to make Brady feel uncomfortable in the pocket.

Super Bowl 53 figures to be a good game. Both teams are good enough to win. Like most games, the winning team will need to avoid turnovers and penalties. There are three phases to a game - offense, defense and special teams. The winning team needs to win at least two of those phases. The winning team needs to execute a majority of it's offensive and defensive plays. The winning team needs to make it's field goals and extra points. The winning team needs to get good field position after punts and kickoffs. Finally, the winning team needs to punt well and put the other team in poor field position.

Coaches have often said that more football games are lost than are won. In other words, the losing team can often make mistakes that cost the team the game. So, avoiding mistakes is one path to victory. Turnovers, penalties, blown assignments in the defensive secondary, poor blocking on the offensive line can often occur at the worst times.

Mistakes can stall drives or prevent drives from continuing. Mistakes on defense can give the opposition a new set of downs or additional opportunities to score. A lack of efficiency on offense, defense or special teams can prevent a team from winning.

Both teams are talented and well coached. Both teams have been two of the best teams throughout the season. Both teams won on the road in order to get to the Super Bowl.

Coach Bellichick has more experience than Coach McVay. However, McVay has already earned respect around the league. It will not be easy for McVay to match wits with Bellichick. However, McVay may be able to hold his own. Additionally, both coaches will be challenged to make in game adjustments and changes at halftime. Both coaches have prepared their teams for this game. However, now both coaches will have to manage the game well in order to win.

Super Bowls sometimes have unlikely heros. They sometimes are decided by role players who step up and make decisive plays. Football games are very difficult to predict. Chances are role players will step up in this game to effect the outcome of the game. Unpredictable scenarios may unfold and unexpected plays will be made.

In any event, Super Bowl 53 should be a good game.