The Yankees' calculation

By firing Joe Girardi, The Yankees are making a calculation: They are betting that they can hire a manager more suited to managing this particualr team. They are betting that someone other than Girardi is more suited to taking this talented team to a World Series championship.

Brian Cashman, Hal Steinbrenner and the Yankee brass acknowledge that Gerardi is an excellent manager. He has 10 straight winning seasons in New York. He has lead the Yankees to the playoffs most of those seasons. They Yankees won a World Series in 2009 under Girardi's leadership. No team in Major League Baseball has won as many games as the Yankees have in the past 10 years.

It has been said that Girardi is ready for a 7:00 game at 2:00. In other words, few managers are has competent or as prepared as Girardi. The Yankees have acknowledged that he has an excellent work ethic and a true understanding of the game.

Cashman and the organization believe that The Yankees need a more personable manager who is less intense. One former player said that Girardi is too intense , and that this intensity wears on a team after a 162 game season. The Yankees are hoping a less intense manager will make the team more relaxed.

Perhaps the Yankees are also concerned that after 10 years that Girardi is burned out. Maybe the Yankees believe that the team needs a fresh voice and a new approach.

The Yankees' calculation is understandable, but it is also questionable. There is no obvious replacement for Gerardi. There is no obvious choice in house or outside of the Yankee organization. Few, if any candidates , will be as competent or as prepared as Girardi is. Few, if any candidates, will be harder working or more dedicated than Girardi has been.

Girardi took a team that was supposed to be rebuilding to game seven of the ALCS. The Yankees finished one game shy of the World Series. Rebuilding usually involves taking one step backwards, so that you can take two steps forward . However, the Yankees did not step backwards. They simply took two steps forward. Girardi had a role in the Yankees' unexpected success this year. He deserves some of the credit for the Yankees ability to circumvent the rebuilding process.

However, Cashman, the Steinbrenner family and Yankee executives know the mood of the clubhouse. They know if players are happy with Girardi as a manger. There is universal respect for Girardi as a person, but perhaps the Yankees think that a manger with a different style and approach is needed.

The Yankees have been through similar decisions in the past. In the last 27 years the Yankees have replaced Bucky Showalter, Joe Torre and now Joe Girardi.

Showalter, along with the late Gene Michael, helped build the Yankee dynasty of the 1990s. When the late George Steinbrenner fired Showalter, he had initial misgivings. Showalter was told that he must fire one of his coaches or he would be fired. Showalter refused , and was fired. However, after Torre was hired, Steinbrenner called and offered Showalter his job back. Steinbrenner said that Torre would be promoted to general manager, and Showalter would be the manager of the team. However, Showalter felt it was wrong to get his job back after Torre had been hired as a replacement. So, Showalter declined the offer.

Showalter had guided the Yankees to the playoffs under the new wild card format. The Yankees lost to the Seattle Mariners in the only playoff series that Don Mattingly ever played in. The Yankees were headed in the right direction, so firing Showalter seemed questionable at the time. However, Torre would go on to have great success. Torre would lead the Yankees to 6 World Series appearances and 4 World Series titles.

Torre managed the Yankees for 13 years. After 13 years, the Yankees offered Torre an incentive laden contract. The contract had a base salary along with financial incentives that would kick in if the Yankees made the playoffs, won a playoff series, made the World Series or won the World Series. Torre tried to explain that he did not need incentives to do his best as manager. Torre felt offended by the incentive laden deal, and refused to accept the Yankees' contract offer. It's possible the Yankees' organization knew that Torre would reject the pact. So, it may have been a way for the Yankees to facilitate a change. Moving on from Torre was another calculation that the organization made.

10 years ago the Yankees believed that Girardi was the best manager for the team. Replacing Torre with Girardi offered the organization no gaurantees, but the Yankees felt comfortable enough to make the change. Girardi did not have the same level of post season success as Torre, however the Yankees did win the 2009 World Series under Girardi's leadership.

For the last 27 years, the Yankees have had three managers. All three have done a good job. The Yankees, a team known for its dysfunction in the 1980's, has become a model of managerial consistency and organizational patience, for the last 27 years. Now, the Yankees will attempt to continue that record with a new manager.

There is no obvious choice for Girardi's replacement. There are candidates who have managerial experience like Tony Pena, Willie Randolph, Pete Mackanin and Clint Hurdle. There are coaches like Rob Thomson, Jay Bell and Raul Ibanez who may be brought in for an interview. There are outside the box candidates like David Cone and John Flaherty who have also been mentioned. It's uncertain if the Yankees have a leading candidate in mind. It's more likely that many candidates will be looked at and someone may impress the Yankee executives during an interview.

The Yankees will probably look for a manager who can develop a rapport with their younger players who figured so prominently in their success this season. They will look for someone who can continue the development of Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Clint Frazier and other younger players. Al Pedrique, the manager for the Yankees' Triple A affiliate, may be a candidate for the job because of his rapport with those players. Raul Ibanez, Hensley Muelens and Reggie Willits have also been mentioned as coaches who could manage a young team.

In any event, it will be interesting to see who the Yankees hire. As Girardi leaves the Yankees, he has a lot to be proud of. The new manager will have a difficult act to follow. However, he should be given time to prove that the Yankees made the right calculation.